Campaigns & Elections

Five for Friday: Congressional Competition

Congressional matchups to watch in the commonwealth going into 2024

The United States Capitol building

The United States Capitol building Andrey Denisyuk / Getty Images

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but … Pennsylvania is a key battleground state in the upcoming midterm elections. Regardless of the phrase’s ubiquity, the commonwealth’s role in national politics and the importance of its congressional and statewide elections go well beyond the borders of the Keystone State. 

Competitive congressional races will not only help decide the balance of the next Congress but will also serve as barometers for nationwide issues and how well each party is attracting voters in purple districts like those in the Lehigh Valley and in the counties surrounding Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.  

City & State has your Five for Friday, breaking down five competitive congressional races in the commonwealth in 2024. 

From top left: Brian Fitzpatrick, Susan Wild, Matt Cartwright, Chris Deluzio, Scott Perry
From top left: Brian Fitzpatrick, Susan Wild, Matt Cartwright, Chris Deluzio & Scott Perry / Photo credit: Kristie Boyd, U.S. House Office of Photography; U.S. House Office Photography; Office of Matt Cartwright; Cole Handerhan; Tom Williams, CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

1st Congressional District

Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick

The 1st Congressional District will see a first-time candidate go up against incumbent Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in the primary election. Mark Houck, a pro-life activist and nonprofit director, is challenging Fitzpatrick for the Republican nomination. Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent who was first elected in 2016, has been able to stave off opponents in previous elections, and he remains the only Republican member of Congress from the southeast part of the state, winning his district by 13 points in 2020 when President Joe Biden won there by 5 points. 

If Fitzpatrick survives the primary, he will go up against Ashley Ehasz in the general election. Ehasz, a former military pilot, lost to Fitzpatrick by 9 points last year but believes experience and a more national focus on Republican swing districts could turn the tide in her favor. Despite the Cook Political Report listing the district’s voter breakdown as an even split, it has Fitzpatrick favored and the race labeled as “Likely Republican.”

7th Congressional District

Incumbent: Susan Wild

In the Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District, Susan Wild will be seeking her fourth term in 2024. Wild has fought off opponents in two previous reelection campaigns since breaking into Congress amid the wave of Democratic women elected in 2018. At present, Wild is set to go up against three Republican opponents: state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, Kevin Dellicker and Maria Montero. 

Mackenzie currently represents the 187th legislative district in Lehigh County. Dellicker previously ran for the Republican nomination in the 7th Congressional District in 2022 but lost to Lisa Scheller, and Montero is an attorney and member of the DeSales University board of trustees. In what’s expected to be another close election in a bellwether district, Wild is currently favored by 2 points and the race is considered “Toss-Up Democrat,” according to the Cook Political Report

8th Congressional District

Incumbent: Matt Cartwright

U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright has fended off Republican Jim Bognet in back-to-back election cycles, but each race has been close, with Cartwright winning by 12,221 votes in 2020, and by a margin of 7,026 votes in 2022. 

Still, with both races decided by less than 5%, the seat remains within reach for Republicans. Prognosticators have largely labeled the seat a toss-up for 2024. Cook Political Report has the district rated as a toss-up, as did Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a political analysis newsletter published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Inside Elections has the seat leaning in Cartwright’s favor in 2024, listing it as “Tilt Democratic.”

10th Congressional District

Incumbent: Scott Perry

In recent election cycles, Democrats have run several candidates against current House Freedom Caucus leader Scott Perry, but none of them have been able to unseat the incumbent, who has been representing central Pennsylvania in Congress since 2013.

Cook Political Report has the seat rated “Likely Republican,” as does Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Two Democrats who have previously challenged Perry – Harrisburg City Councilmember Shamaine Daniels and Carlisle school board member Rich Coplen – are lining up to challenge him for a second time next year, underscoring that the Democratic Party still has Perry’s seat in its sights. 

17th Congressional District

Incumbent: Chris Deluzio

After defeating Republican Jeremy Shaffer by 6.8% in 2022, U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio will look to build on his success. Deluzio will have incumbency on his side as he runs for reelection, but he could have a different Republican challenger this time around, as state Rep. Rob Mercuri and Jim Nelson, a veteran and Pittsburgh-area pastor, have both announced they will seek the GOP nomination.  

Like the other congressional districts on this list, this race has been deemed a fairly competitive one by election analysts. Cook Political has labeled the district as “Lean Democrat,” as has Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. Given the close divide in Congress and the single-digit margin the last go-round, this is another race to watch. 

X
This website uses cookies to enhance user experience and to analyze performance and traffic on our website. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Learn More / Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Accept Cookies
X
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

When you visit our website, we store cookies on your browser to collect information. The information collected might relate to you, your preferences or your device, and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to and to provide a more personalized web experience. However, you can choose not to allow certain types of cookies, which may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings according to your preference. You cannot opt-out of our First Party Strictly Necessary Cookies as they are deployed in order to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting the cookie banner and remembering your settings, to log into your account, to redirect you when you log out, etc.). For more information about the First and Third Party Cookies used please follow this link.

Allow All Cookies

Manage Consent Preferences

Strictly Necessary Cookies - Always Active

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data, Targeting & Social Media Cookies

Under the California Consumer Privacy Act, you have the right to opt-out of the sale of your personal information to third parties. These cookies collect information for analytics and to personalize your experience with targeted ads. You may exercise your right to opt out of the sale of personal information by using this toggle switch. If you opt out we will not be able to offer you personalised ads and will not hand over your personal information to any third parties. Additionally, you may contact our legal department for further clarification about your rights as a California consumer by using this Exercise My Rights link

If you have enabled privacy controls on your browser (such as a plugin), we have to take that as a valid request to opt-out. Therefore we would not be able to track your activity through the web. This may affect our ability to personalize ads according to your preferences.

Targeting cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.

Social media cookies are set by a range of social media services that we have added to the site to enable you to share our content with your friends and networks. They are capable of tracking your browser across other sites and building up a profile of your interests. This may impact the content and messages you see on other websites you visit. If you do not allow these cookies you may not be able to use or see these sharing tools.

If you want to opt out of all of our lead reports and lists, please submit a privacy request at our Do Not Sell page.

Save Settings
Cookie Preferences Cookie List

Cookie List

A cookie is a small piece of data (text file) that a website – when visited by a user – asks your browser to store on your device in order to remember information about you, such as your language preference or login information. Those cookies are set by us and called first-party cookies. We also use third-party cookies – which are cookies from a domain different than the domain of the website you are visiting – for our advertising and marketing efforts. More specifically, we use cookies and other tracking technologies for the following purposes:

Strictly Necessary Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Functional Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Performance Cookies

We do not allow you to opt-out of our certain cookies, as they are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of our website (such as prompting our cookie banner and remembering your privacy choices) and/or to monitor site performance. These cookies are not used in a way that constitutes a “sale” of your data under the CCPA. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not work as intended if you do so. You can usually find these settings in the Options or Preferences menu of your browser. Visit www.allaboutcookies.org to learn more.

Sale of Personal Data

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Social Media Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.

Targeting Cookies

We also use cookies to personalize your experience on our websites, including by determining the most relevant content and advertisements to show you, and to monitor site traffic and performance, so that we may improve our websites and your experience. You may opt out of our use of such cookies (and the associated “sale” of your Personal Information) by using this toggle switch. You will still see some advertising, regardless of your selection. Because we do not track you across different devices, browsers and GEMG properties, your selection will take effect only on this browser, this device and this website.