Quinnipiac Poll shows Shapiro with early lead over Garrity – and looks ahead to 2028

A new Pennsylvania poll from Quinnipiac University shows Gov. Josh Shapiro holding an early lead in the state’s 2026 race for governor, while also gauging voter approval of U.S. Sens. John Fetterman and Dave McCormick.

The poll also surveyed voters on who they believe deserves blame for the commonwealth’s ongoing state budget impasse, which has now surpassed the three-month mark. 

The survey, which polled 1,579 registered voters in Pennsylvania from Sept. 25-29, also waded into a hypothetical 2028 matchup for president, showing Shapiro with a slight edge in the Keystone State over Vice President J.D. Vance – if the two ultimately decide to run for president.

Shapiro leads Garrity in early governor’s race polling

Shapiro hasn’t yet launched a reelection campaign for governor, but Wednesday’s Quinnipiac University poll results show the governor with a 16-point lead over Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who launched a campaign for governor in mid-August and secured the Republican Party of Pennsylvania’s endorsement in September. 

The poll shows Shapiro leading Garrity 55% to 39%, with 4% of voters undecided. 

The survey also polled voters on a rematch of the 2022 gubernatorial race between Shapiro and Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano. In that scenario, Shapiro holds a 56% to 39% over Mastriano, whom the incumbent governor defeated by 14 percentage points in 2022. 

When it comes to job approval, 60% said they approve of the job Shapiro is doing as governor, while 28% said they disapprove of his performance. According to the poll, 58% of voters have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, 28% have an unfavorable view, and 11% said they haven’t heard enough about him. When asked about Garrity, 13% said they have a favorable view of the state treasurer, 12% said they had an unfavorable view, and 73% said they haven’t heard enough about her. 

Shapiro holds edge in hypothetical 2028 matchup with J.D. Vance

While 2028 may seem like a long way away, Quinnipiac also asked voters about their thoughts on a hypothetical 2028 matchup for president between Shapiro and Vance. 

If that matchup were to take place, 53% of voters in Pennsylvania said they would support Shapiro, while 43% would back Vance. Opinions on that matchup were largely split along party lines, with 97% of Democrats saying they would vote for Shapiro and 89% of Republicans saying they would vote for Vance. Notably, Shapiro holds a 58% to 38% lead over Vance with independents, according to the poll.

Both sides get blamed in state budget impasse

Pennsylvania still does not have a state budget for the 2025-26 fiscal year, despite the state’s June 30 budget deadline having passed.

Of those surveyed, 46% of voters said the Democratic-controlled House and the GOP-controlled Senate equally deserve blame for the lack of a state budget; 26% said the Republican-led Senate deserves the bulk of the blame, while 21% said House Democrats are to blame.

Fetterman earns stronger approval numbers from GOP voters than DemocratsFetterman has been no stranger to controversy since being sworn into the U.S. Senate, demonstrating a willingness to work across party lines and even meeting with President Donald Trump following his 2024 election win. 

Forty-six percent of voters surveyed said they approve of Fetterman’s handling of his job in Washington, D.C., while 38% of voters say they disapprove. Interestingly, Fetterman had higher approval numbers among Republicans than members of his own party, with 62% of Republicans saying they approve of how he’s handled his job, and just 33% of Democrats saying the same. Independents are split on Fetterman, with 43% approving of his job performance and 43% disapproving. 

On McCormick, 39% of voters said they approve of how he’s handling his first term in the U.S. Senate, 35% said they disapproved and 16% said they didn’t know or chose not to answer. 

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.