Quinnipiac Poll: Shapiro leading Garrity, showing weakness for potential prez run

The latest polling in the commonwealth is a mixed bag for Gov. Josh Shapiro. 

A Pennsylvania poll from Quinnipiac University released Wednesday shows Shapiro holding a lead over GOP candidate Stacy Garrity in the state’s 2026 race for governor – but his prospects for the White House aren’t as promising. 

Just 40% of Pennsylvania voters think Shapiro would make a good president, according to the poll, while 43% think he wouldn’t make a good president and 16% didn’t offer an opinion. 

“Shapiro maintains solid numbers as governor. Do Pennsylvania voters think he’s up to the job in the Oval Office? Not exactly a ringing endorsement,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement. 

Democrats largely think Shapiro would make a good president, with 69-16% support in the poll. Meanwhile, Republicans and Independents don’t think Shapiro would make a good president, polling at 74-14% and 44-32%, respectively. 

At the same time, Shapiro leads Garrity, the state treasurer, by a 55-37% margin. Just more than half – 51% – of voters have a favorable opinion of Shapiro, and a majority – 56% – approve of his handling of the job as governor. 

The gubernatorial poll shows little change from Quinnipiac’s poll from Pennsylvania last October, which showed Shapiro holding an early lead in the 2026 contest, but does show his overall approval slipping slightly. 

That poll had Shapiro leading Garrity in 2026 and holding an edge in a hypothetical 2028 matchup with J.D. Vance. It also showed U.S. Sen. John Fetterman with greater support among GOP voters than Democrats. 

Shapiro’s handling of his job as governor fell from 60% approval last year to 58% this year, with 49% of independent voters approving of the way he does the job. He also has 51% support from Independent voters when matched up against Garrity, with 66% of voters saying they haven’t heard enough about the Republican candidate. 

Polling plus

The Quinnipiac poll also highlighted several issues, including Pennsylvanians’ views on their representation in Washington. 

The poll found that just 40% of Pennsylvania voters approve of the way President Donald Trump is doing his job, while 55% disapprove – a 3% drop in approval from the October poll. 

Across the board, and even among Republicans, Fetterman seems to be doing better. 

Fetterman’s numbers are a bit better than the president’s, with 46% of Pennsylvania voters approving of his job and 40% disapproving. His Republican colleague, U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick, meanwhile, has 37% approval and 33% disapproval among voters. 

If the midterm elections were held today, 49% of voters would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the House, with the party getting approval among independent voters over Republicans by a 41-36% margin. 

A “bell-to-bell” cell phone ban in schools, a bipartisan measure passed by the state Senate, was one of multiple issues mentioned in the poll. The poll found that 71% of voters support banning cellphones in K-12 schools during the day, while 20% oppose it. 

Voters also weighed in on the minimum wage, the potential legalization of marijuana and the proliferation of data centers. 

A majority of voters – 66% – support raising Pennsylvania’s minimum wage from $7.25 an hour to $15 an hour, and 56% support legalizing recreational marijuana use for adults. Artificial intelligence data centers aren’t as popular, however. Sixty-eight percent of voters would oppose building an AI data center in their community, with a majority of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreeing on the issue. 

“The magic of AI may be the future,” Malloy said, “but when it comes to building the physical infrastructure, Pennsylvania voters say: ‘Not in my backyard.’”