Pennsylvania polls show Democrats leading as midterm election nears

With the Nov. 3 general election nearing, a new batch of polls brought good news for Pennsylvania Democrats, with Gov. Josh Shapiro maintaining a lead over his Republican opponent, Treasurer Stacy Garrity, while Democratic challengers hold narrow leads in competitive congressional districts. 

One poll, conducted by The New York Times, Siena University and The Philadelphia Inquirer, surveyed voters on Pennsylvania’s 2026 race for governor, attitudes toward President Donald Trump, and this year’s congressional races. The other poll, from Franklin & Marshall University, surveyed voters in Pennsylvania’s battleground 7th and 10th Congressional Districts – both currently held by Republicans. 

City & State broke down the key takeaways from both polls for a closer look at what the latest numbers mean for major races across the commonwealth. 

Shapiro leads Garrity by 20 in latest New York Times poll

The latest poll on Pennsylvania’s governor race shows Shapiro continuing to hold a commanding lead over Garrity.

The poll surveyed 615 voters from Sept. 15 to 22. Of those polled, 58% said they would vote for Shapiro if the race were held today, compared to 38% who would vote for Garrity; 4% were undecided. The New York Times put Shapiro’s overall lead at 21 points based on unrounded vote shares. 

A majority of voters said they approve of the job Shapiro is doing as governor, with 60% of voters saying they strongly or somewhat approve of how he is handling the job; 33% said they strongly or somewhat disapprove of his job performance. Additionally, 63% of voters said they have a favorable opinion of the incumbent governor, while 32% said they had an unfavorable opinion. 

When asked the same question about Garrity, 29% said they had a favorable view of the state treasurer, 27% said they had an unfavorable view and 33% said they hadn’t heard of her. 

Other available polling in the race has also shown Shapiro with a lead over Garrity. A poll released in early August by National Public Affairs Polling, a GOP polling firm, showed Shapiro with support from 50% of likely voters and Garrity at 43%. Of those surveyed, 7% said they were undecided. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released in late August showed Shapiro with a 25-point lead over Garrity in the race for governor, 50% to 25%.

This month’s New York Times poll also asked voters about their views on Democratic U.S. Sen. John Fetterman in the wake of Wall Street Journal reporting that portrayed him as having little interest in his day-to-day duties as a U.S. senator. The senator also recently appeared at the Republican Party’s midterm convention, introducing his colleague, Republican U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick. 

Of those surveyed, 42% had a favorable view of Fetterman, while 47% had an unfavorable view of the state’s senior U.S. senator. 

When asked the same question about Trump, 38% said they had a favorable view of the president and 61% said they had an unfavorable view of him.

Democrats hold narrow leads in PA-7 and PA-10, though many remain undecided

In Pennsylvania, Democrats have their sights set on four congressional seats currently held by Republicans, and according to a new poll from Franklin & Marshall College, Democrats hold narrow leads in two of them. 

In the state’s 7th Congressional District, which is currently represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, Democratic candidate and firefighters union leader Bob Brooks holds a five-point lead over the incumbent congressman, with 16% of voters undecided. 

According to the survey, 45% of voters said they would vote for Brooks if the election were held today, compared to 40% who would vote for Mackenzie. 

Similarly, in the state’s 10th Congressional District, former TV anchor and Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson leads Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry by 47% to 44%, with 9% of respondents undecided. 

Speaking to abc27 following the poll’s release, Stelson’s campaign said Perry is trailing because Central Pennsylvania voters “want a change” in Washington, D.C., while Perry downplayed the significance of the poll’s findings. 

“The poll that matters is the one that’s going to happen on Nov. 3,” he said.

Voters in both districts said the economy and finances were the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today. In the 7th Congressional District, 29% identified the economy and finances as the state’s biggest problem, as did 22% in the 10th Congressional District.