Quinnipiac Poll: Shapiro-Garrity race ‘looks like a rout’

With less than a month until Election Day, polls continue to forecast a potential blue wave in the Keystone State, including in the race for governor. 

In the first survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania this election cycle, Quinnipiac University found that nearly 60% of respondents support incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro, while just 34% support Republican challenger and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. 

According to the latest Quinnipiac Poll, 95% of Democrats and 62% of Independents support Shapiro, while 79% of Republicans and just 23% of Independents support Garrity.   

The race between Shapiro and Garrity, which has recently focused on data center politics, has been seen as Shapiro’s to lose, given his relatively steady approval ratings and the political headwinds facing GOP politicians in 2026. 

Previous Quinnipiac polling showed Shapiro with 51% support from independents, but the latest numbers suggest he may be running away with the race after all. 

“One of the country’s most popular governors gets a rousing endorsement from Pennsylvania’s likely voters in a race that looks like a rout,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.

Shapiro’s job approval sits at 63%, while federal lawmakers lag far behind him, at least in the eyes of likely Pennsylvania voters. The poll found that only 41% of respondents approve of Sen. John Fetterman, while 37% approve of Sen. Dave McCormick and President Donald Trump. The results also showed that both Fetterman, with a 50% disapproval rating, and Trump, with a 60% disapproval rating, are currently underwater with voters. 

U.S. House and data centers

Overall, recent polling has given Democrats reason to be cautiously optimistic. More than half of likely voters, 54%, want the Democratic Party to control the U.S. House, including 56% of independents. 

“With independents in strong agreement, Democrats get the nod on which party should wield the gavel in the U.S. House,” Malloy said. 

Likely voters also weighed in on national political issues, including artificial intelligence data centers. The poll found that 64% of likely voters think AI data centers in the commonwealth do more harm than good, but the political gaps between respondents stand out. 

Among the likely voters, 80% of Democrats and 72% of independents think AI data centers will do more harm than good, while Republicans remained split. The poll found that 40% of Republicans think AI data centers will do more harm than good, while 44% think they will do more good than harm. 

The poll, conducted between Oct. 1 and 5, surveyed 1,159 Pennsylvania likely voters.